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Cleveland-Cliffs to Post Q2 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

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Key Takeaways

  • Cleveland-Cliffs is projected to report Q2 revenues of $4.9B, reflecting a 3.8% year-over-year decline.
  • Higher steel prices boosted by tariffs are likely to have supported CLF's Q2 performance.
  • Steelmaking costs are likely to have risen in Q2, offsetting CLF's gains from pricing and volume increases.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF - Free Report) is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on July 21.

CLF has a trailing fourth-quarter negative earnings surprise of roughly 9.7%, on average. It delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 17.9% in the last reported quarter. CLF is expected to have benefited from higher volumes in the second quarter. Higher steel prices are also likely to have aided its performance, offset by an uptick in unit costs.

The CLF stock has lost 38.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 26.4% decline.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the upcoming announcement.

What Do CLF’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter consolidated revenues for Cleveland-Cliffs is currently pegged at $4,899.2 million, which suggests a year-over-year decline of 3.8%.

Factors to Watch For CLF Stock

CLF is expected to have benefited from an uptick in steel prices in the second quarter. U.S. steel prices have recovered following a sharp decline in 2024 due to a slowdown in end-market demand and oversupply of steel. The Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the United States in March 2025 led to a surge in benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices to a peak of nearly $950 per short ton. The administration's early June doubling of steel tariffs to 50% and the consequent steel mill price hikes triggered a further spike in HRC prices.  

Higher selling prices are likely to have aided CLF’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for the average net selling price per net ton of steel products is $1,020, indicating a roughly 4.1% increase from the prior quarter. 

The company is also expected to have gained from higher volumes in the June quarter, aided by higher volumes in automotive and contributions from the Stelco buyout. Volumes are expected to have been driven by higher demand. Our estimate for external sales volumes for steel products stands at 4.2 million net tons, suggesting a 1.4% sequential rise and a 5.3% year-over-year increase. 

The benefits of higher prices and volumes are likely to have been partly offset by increased steelmaking unit costs in the second quarter. While CLF is expected to benefit significantly from a reduction in costs in the second half of 2025 mainly driven by the idling of underperforming assets, costs are likely to have increased in the second quarter. The company sees a $5 per ton increase in unit costs in the second quarter from the first quarter.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. Quote

What Our Model Unveils for CLF Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Cleveland-Cliffs this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for CLF is -4.60%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 67 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: CLF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 30, has an Earnings ESP of +7.18% and carries a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at $1.66.

Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on Aug. 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.42% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The consensus mark for B’s second-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 48 cents.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on July 30, has an Earnings ESP of +15.34%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the second quarter is currently pegged at 27 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. 

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